www.ferroalloynet.com:In 2021, in view of shipowners’ wait-and-see attitude towards future capacity demand, epidemic control, international port normalization, route adjustments, etc., Liu Hengyu, industry director of the Shipping Branch of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, predicts that China’s ship exports will still face greater pressure this year .
Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the overall global economic and trade decline in 2020, and the shipping and offshore industry, which is closely related to global trade in goods and the macro economy, will also be significantly affected. According to data, in 2020, China’s import and export volume of marine products was US$23.907 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.48%, of which exports were US$21.732 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.3%; imports were US$2.175 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.43%.
China Customs statistics show that from January to December 2020, China’s entire tanker exports were US$3.568 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.13%; imports were US$97.4201 million, a year-on-year increase of 184.48%; imports and exports amounted to US$3.666 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.59%.
According to Liu Hengyu, in 2020, due to the suspension of work and production due to the Spring Festival and the epidemic, and the hindrance of international personnel exchanges, the total export value of Chinese tankers will drop significantly in February, March, May, and July, to 0.97 respectively. Billion US dollars (down 67.4% year-on-year), 49 million US dollars (down 85.54% year-on-year), 230 million US dollars (down 41.5% year-on-year), and 221 million US dollars (down 26.04% year-on-year). In particular, the poor communication between international personnel has prevented the supervision and acceptance of construction and other tasks from proceeding as planned, which has had a greater impact on the delivery of ships by Chinese shipyards.
According to the data, the export value of liquefied natural gas vessels from January to December 2020 is US$801 million, accounting for 22.45% of the total export volume of liquid cargo vessels, accounting for a relatively high proportion, with a year-on-year increase of 97.8%. Among them, the export value of product oil tankers and crude oil tankers decreased significantly compared with the same period last year. The export value of product oil tankers (product oil tankers with a deadweight of not more than 100,000 tons) was 597 million US dollars, which accounted for 16.73% of exports, and exports decreased by 50.42% year-on-year; crude oil tankers The export value was US$690 million, a year-on-year decrease of 42.61%. There are many reasons for the decline in the export of product oil tankers and crude oil tankers. “First, the rapid development of short- and medium-term lithium batteries and the replacement of medium and long-term clean energy will have an impact on the crude oil market demand. Second, the weak global economy and Sino-US trade frictions Under the general environment, oil prices have been hovering at a low level for the past three years, and shipowners are holding a wait-and-see attitude towards the future situation of refined oil and crude oil. Third, the global economic downturn caused by the epidemic has led to a decline in energy demand and poor expectations.” Liu Hengyu said.
In 2020, China’s container ship exports will be under greater pressure. Statistics from China Customs show that in 2020, China’s export volume of container ships was US$2.031 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 27.65%. The Baltic Container Freight Index (FBX) shows that as of December 31, 2020, the global container freight index has risen from USD 1,461 at the beginning of 2020 to USD 3,448, an increase of 136%. The container freight rate of some routes has increased by 400% or even higher.
In 2020, China’s dry bulk carrier exports have achieved better results. China Customs statistics show that from January to December 2020, the export value of China’s dry bulk carriers was US$7.812 billion, an increase of 27.31% year-on-year; among them, the export value of motorized bulk carriers with a deadweight less than 300,000 tons was 2.782 billion. The US dollar increased by 71.29% year-on-year, which was a significant increase.
In 2020, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI Index) fell rapidly from 1090 points on January 2 to a new low of 393 points on May 14. After May 2020, China’s social production and life have basically returned to normal, coupled with the increase in commodity prices, the demand for dry bulk shipping capacity has increased, and shipowners have a large demand for dry bulk ships, and the delivery of ships is urgent. Exports showed good export performance. “The pull of China’s manufacturing industry is the main reason for the significant changes in the BCI index. International iron ore trade will affect changes in transport capacity requirements. On December 31, 2020, iron ore inventories have returned to the same period in history. The economic downturn will have a certain impact on the outlook for capacity demand.” Liu Hengyu said.
In 2020, China’s exports of offshore work platforms will increase slightly. China Customs statistics show that from January to December 2020, the export value of China’s offshore engineering platform was US$3.967 billion, an increase of 9.57% year-on-year. The main destination countries for China’s offshore engineering platform exports are Singapore and the UAE, and the two countries account for 62.44% of the market.
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